In an election analysis for Yle's Finnish-language service, political and social affairs unit producer Anniina Luotonen points out that although the National Coalition Party candidate Alexander Stubb has made a strong showing, Pekka Haavisto (Green/independent) is breathing down his neck.
Both will now have to appeal to voters beyond their traditional constituencies if they want to be elected.
In the first round of the election, Stubb collected 882,000 votes and Haavisto 836,000.
The race between the two is closer than the polls suggested.
In Finnish presidential elections, the qualifications and personality of the candidate usually outweigh party background in the voting booth, and Pekka Haavisto's decision to run his third campaign for the presidency as a candidate for a voters' association is a reflection of this. He has said that as a presidential candidate he does not want to stick to the colours of party politics.
This time, however, he is not backed by the same enthusiasm as in 2012, when the popular Finnish band Ultra Bra filled the Helsinki Ice Hall with his supporters and a male choir sang Finlandia at Helsinki Railway Station for a flash mob of his backers.
Stubb, on the other hand, is more firmly stamped as the candidate of the National Coalition Party and — as a Swedish- and Finnish-speaking candidate — he has received visible support from the Swedish People's Party.
Not enough votes of their own
The background material collated for Yle's final pre-election poll shows that Stubb has strong support in a race against Haavisto not only from the NCP, but also from voters of the Centre Party, Swedish People's Party, Finns Party and Christian Democrats.
In that poll, respondents were asked which candidate they would vote for if Haavisto and Stubb were to face each other in the second round. They were also asked which party they would vote for if parliamentary elections were being held now.
Of Social Democratic Party voters, 65 percent said they would vote for Haavisto. Meanwhile, 84 percent of Left Alliance voters and 91 percent of Green voters said they would cast a ballot for Haavisto in a second round.
For all other parties, a majority said they would vote for Stubb.
Twelve years ago, when Haavisto faced Sauli Niinistö, the second round ended in a clear victory for Niinistö, who received 62.6 percent of the votes cast and came out top in every voting district in mainland Finland.
Clearer security vision
This presidential election will go down in history as the one that asked whether Russia would attack Finland.
The news has been grim.
Russia is expected to expand its military forces near the Finnish border.
Finland's entire eastern border has been closed. Just three days before the elections, 18 asylum seekers from the Middle East crossed the border as a reminder that the threat of Russian hybrid influence has not gone away.
It is no wonder that in polls, Finns say they are more concerned than previously that the war will spread out from Ukraine.
The serious security situation prompted candidates in the first round of the election to repeat that Finland would remain safe. The unity cultivated in security policy was not challenged. On the contrary, words were chosen in such a way that, at the very least, candidates' debates would not erode the common trust.
During the second round, Stubb and Haavisto will be expected to give a clearer vision of how Finland will ensure its security.
Both will be able to emphasise their role in Finland's path into Nato. Stubb has been a long-time advocate of membership and helped pave Finland's road by giving, by his own count, 400-500 interviews on the subject. Haavisto, on the other hand, was foreign minister at the time of accession and secured the support of the other Nato member states.
Avoiding blunders
A key question, and one central to presidential prerogatives, is how active a role these candidates envisage Finland playing in Nato.
Finland is about to make decisions on its participation in Nato's peacetime tasks, but the candidates are also expected to have a vision of where Finland could contribute.
Haavisto and Stubb have been divided on whether Finland can accept the transit of nuclear weapons through its territory, something banned under current law. Stubb talks of a shared responsibility to maintain a nuclear deterrence, and would not restrict transit. Haavisto, on the other hand, does not see the need to change legislation that prohibits bringing explosive nuclear devices into the country.
Stubb still carries the weight of a blunder he made as finance minister nearly a decade ago, claiming 90 percent expert backing for a certain piece of legislation backed by only 10 percent and shrugging it off when called out for it. His almost flippant "sorry about that" has become something of a stock phrase.
During the week before the first-round election, Stubb was asked to explain his position on dual Russian-Finnish citizenship in an Yle election interview. In previous remarks during a debate hosted by the newspaper Ilta-Sanomat, he let it be understood that dual citizenship could be revoked. He later stressed to Yle that he had only spoken about his readiness to discuss the matter.
Stubb's campaign team knows that blunders and overconfidence must now be avoided. The polls forecast broad support for Stubb, but it will only be the votes cast that count.
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