Reflections on FOSDEM [LWN.net]

Reflections on FOSDEM

Posted Mar 7, 2017 12:18 UTC (Tue) by anselm (subscriber, #2796)
In reply to: Reflections on FOSDEM by paulj
Parent article: Reflections on FOSDEM

Which means that the set of "No" voters who voted that way cause their heart said "Yes" to Scottish independence, but their head said "No" cause of the economic consequences, may well vote differently when IndyRef2 happens.

OTOH, public support for another Scottish independence referendum has been underwhelming so far even in spite of the Brexit. According to current opinion polls there is still a solid (as in, IndyRef1-style) majority on the “No” side. Support for independence is certainly nowhere near a level where the SNP would risk actually putting on another referendum. This may change once further details about the UK government's Brexit plans transpire, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

to post comments

Reflections on FOSDEM

Posted Mar 7, 2017 12:21 UTC (Tue) by gerv (guest, #3376) [Link] (3 responses)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-3...

"[T]he opinion polls continue to suggest a majority of the Scottish electorate still does not support independence."

Reflections on FOSDEM

Posted Mar 7, 2017 12:44 UTC (Tue) by paulj (subscriber, #341) [Link] (2 responses)

That's the BBC. The _British_ Broadcasting Corporation, which has something of an institutional bias against Scottish independence - the clue is in the name. Further, the correspondent is Sarah Smith, who has fairly strong ties to the Labour party, for whom Scottish Independence is an existential threat.

There are big propaganda machines at play on Scottish Independence. Given all the broken promises and claims made the last time, some of it might not be effective this time.

Note that the private polls form part of the politics and propaganda machines. E.g., the most recent one was commissioned by an anti-Indy campaigner. A poll by the same surveying company (BMG) a month earlier, commissioned by another party and with a more straight-forward question, found pro-Indy had a slight edge FWIW.

Reflections on FOSDEM

Posted Mar 7, 2017 13:37 UTC (Tue) by anselm (subscriber, #2796) [Link] (1 responses)

This is actually rather more complicated than it seems. For example, it is by no means clear that everyone who is pro-Scottish-independence is also pro-EU-membership. In fact quite a number of IndyRef “Yes” voters apparently also voted “Yes” on the Brexit, and might not maintain their “Yes” vote on Scottish independence if keeping (or regaining) EU membership is made a primary goal for an independent Scotland. This is a potential problem if a second IndyRef is scheduled before the actual Brexit, because these people might prefer Scotland leaving the EU together with the rest of the UK before having a referendum on Scottish independence.

On the other hand, losing another referendum might force Nicola Sturgeon to step down as first minister (Alex Salmond and David Cameron did, after all), which is probably not something that she is personally keen to do anytime soon, so she may want to delay a second IndyRef until a clear pro-Independence majority emerges (possibly after the actual Brexit, possibly not even then, possibly never). That however clashes with the amount of noise the SNP has already made about holding another IndyRef soon(ish) no matter what the polls say, so Sturgeon is in a bit of a bind there.

Then of course there are people who think that having one independence referendum per generation is actually quite enough. There are more of those on the “No” side, but even on the “Yes” side there is a certain amount of support for letting the idea rest and concentrating on other things.

Reflections on FOSDEM

Posted Mar 7, 2017 13:55 UTC (Tue) by paulj (subscriber, #341) [Link]

Given there was a good majority for 'remain' in the BrExit ref in Scotland (bigger than the narrow one in favour of leave UK wide, which May, et al hold up as a clear mandate), the concerns of the majority of remain voters should go above the leavers and the vote should be before any BrExit, so that Scotland - if it voted independence - would be able to make the case for staying in the EU (succeeding in interest of the membership of the - in that case - former and defunct state of UKGBNI, as the new state of UKENI secedes from the EU while Scotland stays).

And yes, there were Yes/Leave voters, and yeah, be interesting to see which way they'd split on a referendum that would basically be "Independence + Remain". ;) And yes, it'll be the biggest gamble Sturgeon ever makes. ;)

The Unionists will claim BrExit means Scottish Independence + EU membership becomes a lot more complicated, because Scotland in the EU would mean an EU border with England. However, the BrExiteers already have created this problem with Ireland, and they already have to find a solution for the north of Ireland and the rest of Ireland.